DSL Prime: France Turns On 15 Mbps

It's just another reminder of how backward the broadband industry is the in the United States. We're certainly not number one in broadband.

by Dave Burstein of DSL Prime and Future of TV [October 27, 2004]

ASDL2+ is "going to open today for about 100,000 of our customers," good news for Free.fr but a little disconcerting to this writer, who had just written "ADSL2+ is 2005," still months away. Looking closer, both stories make sense. "We set up our own DSLAMs and our own CPE," Niel added, a technical capability few have. France Telecom, despite a strong technology group, is holding back until 2005; SBC is mostly targeting 2006 and 2007 for their upgrades.

Free.fr makes sure matched Broadcom chips are on both sides, but what happens if they want to plug in a different set top with an ADI or Globespan chip? Sensibly, they are promoting 15 meg service, rather than promising 24 meg. 15 meg is great, unless you're a carrier in North America whose customers are demanding HDTV, currently at 10 to 12 Mbps per TV with Windows Media or MPEG4.

Vendors shipping "ADSL2+ capable" can't point me to any volume of consumers running at 20, much less 24, Mbps. Still, I'd feel foolish if I hadn't included, "Samples are easily available, and some companies are moving to the field with ADSL2+." Its time will soon come. For now, I wish I lived in the 77 exchange in Paris.

In areas with fewer choices, Ed Whitacre's comment "We have 100 percent DSL availability now," has now changed the entire debate about broadband around the world. The 15 year CEO of SBC put his personal credibility behind a "DSL Everywhere" goal long espoused by the DSL Forum, many smaller telcos, and this writer. There's nothing in the network or economics that means Telstra or Qwest can't do the same. From now on, any telco doing less must be asked why. It's time to stop political posturing, solve the few remaining problems, and act firmly with any telco not rapidly moving to 95 percent or higher.

"SBC's CEO's comment is ahead of what I hear from the field," I made a point of adding, but still got flamed by comments at DSL Reports I should have been more skeptical. The folks who are still being turned down are angry, and there are still too many of them, including perhaps 15 percent of California. The quote is accurate and in context, and I look forward to Whitacre implementing in Cerritos what he said on Wall Street. Serving everyone is good business, not just good politics. Add the cost of the repeater to Whitacre's estimate of an hour to install, and you come to $200-300 for over $1,000 in high margin revenue over three years. Bells have been known to spend that much on "customer acquisition," while these customers are already calling and begging to be served. In many cases, ever less expensive small remote DSLAMs are even cheaper. Whitacre has it right; I hope his team follows his vision.

Say hello to this round fellow with a beard at the NARUC/NECA Broadband Summit Monday and Tuesday, Columbia University Friday. I'm also set for NASUCA/NARUC in Nashville, the interesting TelcoTV in Orlando, and an evening in Austin with IEEE COMSOC November 18.

Iliad/Free Turns on France with 15 Meg ADSL2+
Xavier Niel is happy. "I'm writing this e-mail using my ADSL2+ line at home! It's going to open today for about 100,000 of our customers." Niel's offer now is no charge telephony across France, 60 channels of ad supported TV, 40 channels of Pay TV, and 15 meg down, 1 meg up, at the upgraded exchanges. The other unbundled exchanges today get up to 6 meg down, covering half the French population, and mostly will be upgraded to the ADSL2+ speeds. Niel is changing European telecom just as Masayoshi Son permanently changed Japan. France Telecom will move to ADSL2+ next year across their entire network, covering 96 percent of the country, DSL Prime reported last month. "Thx Iliad/Free" for showing how well competition can work.

James Enck of Daiwa thinks that this time next year, the UK market may look very much the same, given the growth plans of Bulldog/Cable and Wireless, NTL, and others. That's an optimistic view, but wouldn't it be wonderful?

Free.fr is sensibly advertising 15 meg, not 24. Few homes will get 24 meg, and disappointing customers is not good business. Possibly even more damaging is disappointing your CEO by not being able to deliver the video package you promised. Bell Canada is making a contingency plan for video at 13 meg, which today means no HDTV or only a single set. Duane Ackerman of BellSouth is publicly wondering whether compression rate improvement will meet their needs, and is ordering DSLAMs designed to bond two lines together for faster speeds.

Copyright 2004 Dave Burstein.
The DSL Prime Newsletter is reprinted with permission.

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