DSL Prime: Every 10 Seconds

With one new customer every 10 seconds, Britain proves that people want DSL—through anyone but the telco, if the regulator will permit it.

by Dave Burstein of DSL Prime and Future of TV [February 18, 2005]

"Discover. Dissect. Dig. Track. Reveal. Confront. Besiege. Level. Care."
—Jack Newfield, a great reporter who recently died

The drums led Ossie Davis's coffin through the streets of Harlem, and Wynton Marsalis' horn sent onward a black shining Prince. Today's television networks did not show Harlem bid farewell to one of its finest hopes. That's why I fight so hard to prevent telco "walled gardens" blocking quality Internet video. I want to see the audience applause when Bill Clinton said "I would proudly ride on the back of Ossie Davis's bus any day." Your passion may instead be Canadian football, Urdu movies, Bollywood in Arabic, deep sea fishing, or chants from the Koran. I hope we can find a way the video speed Internet stays open for all.

The DSL bandwagon continues. 813,000 Brits signed on for DSL Q4, enough to turn BT revenue up for the quarter, which Verwayen figures is one every ten seconds. 74 percent avoided BT retail as the ISP, as AOL, FT/Wanadoo, and others prove consumers want choice if the regulator makes it possible. France Telecom reached 6.3 million ADSL lines, soon to be upgraded to ADSL2+. Telefonica is over 4 million, including 1.5 million in Latin America. IPTV announcements are coming faster than I can track them, with several million likely in Asia this year and millions to follow in North America the next two years.

1 million love Paris and Free.fr
768,000 Freebox shipped with 29.95 euro DSL, VoIP, and video
Paris has pulled ahead of any other western capital in DSL, as Free.fr has proved the Japanese model of high speeds and voice yielding huge customer volumes works just as well in Europe. They now offer 40 channels of video, and only dramatic improvements in the FT offering have prevented an utter rout in the marketplace. FT is offering twice the speed for a third lower price than they originally planned for early 2005, which is exactly the way the system is supposed to work.

Telecom Italia's Hansenet is now in five major German cities—watch for dramatic improvements in Germany soon as well. BT just doubled speeds as BT retail loses market share.

Next issue, how to nurture competition from Attwood of SBC, Semmoto of EAccess, and Boukobza of Free.fr. Mike Powell was wrong that it was impossible.

Telmex 560,000, growing at 50,000/month
Telefonica Spain 2.2 million, Latin America 1.5 million
Mexico was late to the DSL market, but said at April Fast Net to watch them grow. Telmex's innovative marketing includes financing purchase of an Xbox or a PC. They've looked closely at video, discarding several plans that were close to a final ok. Telefonica is leading the growth of the Spanish language DSL market, with a "walled garden" video product soon to deploy.

No "Broadband" from BT or most other telcos
Canada's smart definition includes 1.5 Mbps upstream for two way Internet
The California Broadband proposal, from Susan Kennedy, picks up this important definition from the Canadian National Broadband Task Force (CNBTF). "Definition of the term 'broadband,' noted that among the 14 countries that were surveyed, national definitions of the term ranged from as low as 2 Mbps to high as 30 Mbps.

Taking a more functional approach to definition, the CNBTF decided not to define broadband in terms of information transmission rates, but instead defined it as 'a high capacity, two-way link between end users and access network suppliers capable of supporting full-motion interactive video applications to all Canadians on terms comparable to those available in urban markets.' Based on the technology existing at the time, it concluded that a minimum two-way or symmetrical transmission speed of 1.5 Mbps per individual user was required to meet this standard. In the future, the CNBTF predicted, speeds of up to 4 to 6 Mbps would be required to handle emerging applications such as peer-to-peer video file sharing and video conferencing."

SBC, as noted below, is requiring 2.1 Mbps for standard video, more than the projected upstream of any western DSL carrier except perhaps Belgacom.

Copyright 2005 Dave Burstein.
The DSL Prime Newsletter is reprinted with permission.

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