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ISP Market Research

Subscriber Values: June 2002

This month saw scandal heaped upon valid financial fears as the accounts at some of the largest Internet backbone providers came under scrutiny. As a result, the stocks of all ISPs except one are down.

ISP-Planet Staff
[June 28, 2002]
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As accounting problems continue to be uncovered, even major players are suffering. Qwest Communications (NYSE:Q), which, as an ILEC, is not on this list, dropped after an SEC inquiry was announced. It fell from a close of 4.19 on June 25, 2002, to open at 2.91 the next morning. With a market capitalization hovering around $4 billion, the company is now worth five time EarthLink.

Even more shocking revelations occurred at WorldCom (NYSE:Q), the parent company of MCI and UUNet. Just before the market opened on June 27, 2002, the Securities and Exchange Commisssion filed a civil lawsuit against the company for inflating earnings by over $4 billion.

With worries about the stock market reaching a fever pitch, it's no surprise that some stocks are down. Companies about which concerns had already been voiced, such as America Online (NYSE:AOL), are falling steadily. AOL stock fell 11 percent on June 26, 2002, alone. The company's market capitalization fell from $83.6 billion last month to $60.7 billion.

United Online (NYSE:AOL), the merged agglomeration of NetZero and Juno, is doing well, rising in market capitalization from $442 million last month to $475 million this month. That increase, nearly ten percent, is especially impressive given current conditions

Subscriber numbers are from ISP-Planet's list of U.S. ISPs and from company reports. Market capitalization data is as of market close, Wednesday, June 26, 2002, reported on the Wall Street Research Network.

ISP Subscriber Value:  $536
(ISP subscriber values without AOL would average $168 per subscriber.)

Stock Symbol

ISP

Value per subscriber

Market Cap
(millions)

Number of subscribers

[AOL]

AOL*

$1,640

$60,690

37,000,000

[UNTD]

United Online*

$297

$475

1,600,000

[ELNK]

EarthLink

$181

$886

4,900,000

[GEEK]

Internet America

$26

$3.5

137,000

*AOL subscriber numbers include RoadRunner.
*
Juno and NetZero have merged into United Online. We report only paying subscribers for the merged company. The company claims 5.2 million active users (combined paying and free subscribers).

OmniSky, a mobile wireless ISP, was in Chapter 11 when it was acquired by EarthLink in January, 2002. At its peak, OmniSky was valued at $1.6 billion. Forbes estimates that in 2001, EarthLink (Nasdaq:ELNK) paid about $150 per subscriber for 36 other ISPs with a total subscriber count of 304,000, a total of $46 million. If Forbes' estimates are correct, the average size of the acquired ISPs would be 8,500 subscribers. This data suggests that EarthLink pays the same price for dialup as it does mobile wireless subscribers.

ISP Sale Prices

Buyer/Seller

Value per subscriber

Price
(millions)

Number of subscribers

EarthLink (ELNK)/
OmniSky (OMNYE)

$156

$5

32,000

Go America's (Nasdaq:GOAM) stock continues to fall. The announcement of an expanded relationship with IBM (NYSE:IBM) buoyed the stock on June 26, 2002.

Mobile Wireless ISP Subscriber Value:  $123

Stock Symbol

ISP

Value per subscriber

Market Cap
(millions)

Number of subscribers

[GOAM]

GoAmerica

$123

$19

153,000

RCN (Nasdaq:RCNC) is adding cable subscribers but losing its dialup base. Its stock fell this month, in tune with the general trend of the market.

Cable ISP Subscriber Value:  $348

Stock Symbol

ISP

Value per subscriber

Market Cap
(millions)

Number of subscribers

[RCNC]
RCN
$348
$163
481,587

RCN subscriber numbers include subscribers to the StarPower joint venture (a joint venture with Pepco Communications, L.L.C., a utility's subsidiary). RCN reported 136,795 cable Internet subscribers and 331,470 dialup subscribers.


Our new CLEC listings requires close examination. We are comparing a wide variety of companies, including Covad, and we welcome your comments.

GT Group Telecom has obtained bankruptcy protection and will be placed back on the list when the proceedings conclude. The stocks of the other CLECs have all fallen somewhat, generally in line with the movement of the market.

Louisiana-based Century Tel (NYSE:CTL) and its subsidiaries operated 1,795,769 telephone access lines and had 515,376 long distance customers, primarily in rural, suburban, and small urban areas in 21 states, as of March 31, 2002.

From its base of operations in Little Rock, Ark., Alltel Corp. provides communications and information services, as well as telecom products and its telephone directories. Long-distance services are provided on both a facilities-based and resale basis by the Alltell's (NYSE:AT) subsidiaries to 10 million customers, including 200,000 Internet subscribers.

General Communications (CGI) is primarily an Anchorage, Alaska-based holding company. Together with its direct and indirect subsidiaries the company offers diversified telecommunications portfolio, including digital and analog cellular telephone services. CGI (Nasdaq:GNCMA) operates four reportable segments: long-distance services, cable services, local access services and Internet services. All told, GCI connects 90,000 telephone subscribers, 71,400 Internet customers, 30,000 cable Internet customers, 26,000 digital cable TV customers, and 132,627 cable TV subscribers.

FASTNET is an Internet service provider offering Internet access and enhanced services, such as webhosting, managed security solutions, and other value added products, to small and medium sized enterprises in the mid-Atlantic region. FASTNET (Nasdaq:FSST) provides services to 2,164 enterprise customers, 26,276 SOHO customers, and 7,014 webhosting customers. The company closed on the acquisition of AppliedTheory on June 3, 2002.

Covad Communications Group provides broadband communications services that it sells to businesses and consumers through Internet service providers, enterprises, telecommunications carriers and other customers. From its base of operations in Santa Clara, Calif., Covad (OTC BB:COVD) currently has more than 359,000 lines in use across the U.S.

Alaska Communications Systems Group (The ACS Group) is diversified, facilities-based telecommunications provider in Alaska. The ACS Group (Nasdaq:ALSK) offers local telephone, cellular, long distance, data and Internet services, interexchange network and other services to business and residential customers throughout the state. The company currently operates 330,000 access lines, connects 80,000 cellular and 66,000 long distance customers, as well as 47,000 Internet users.

At last count Charlotte, North Carolina-based US LEC (Nasdaq:CLEC) provided integrated telecommunications services, including local, long distance, data, Internet and enhanced services to 7,500 enterprise customers comprising 208,188 voice and 40,147 data channels, as well as 30,131 ISP clients. Since then, the company has added 500 enterprise customers but has not providded channel data details.

CLEC Subscriber Value:  $952

Stock Symbol

CLEC

Value per subscriber

Market Cap
(millions)

Number of subscribers

[CTL]

Century Tel

$1,761

$4,071

2,322,769

[AT]

AllTel

$1,447

$14,468

10,000,000

[GNCMA]

General Communications

$1,154

$404

350,027

[FSST]

FASTNET

$765

$27

35,454

[COVD]

Covad

$674

$242

359,000

[ALSK]

The ACS Group

$250

$131

523,000

[CLEC]

US LEC

$213

$59

278,466

—End

Related articles:
  [June 27, 2002] Qwest, WorldCom Under Scrutiny
  [Nov. 27, 2001] Prove That You're Worth It
  [June 15, 2001] Landscape Changing for Backbone Providers?

Online resources:
  DSL Subscriber Numbers
  History of Subscriber Values
  Top U.S. ISPs by Subscriber
  Wall Street Research Network

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