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ISP Market Research

Subscriber Values: March 2002

Beware the Ides of March—beware of federal regulators, too. ISP market capitalizations take a drubbing from the FCC while Log On America and High Speed Access exit the residential ISP market.

ISP-Planet Staff
[March 27, 2002]
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Log On America exited the dialup marketplace when by selling its residential subscriber base to EarthLink late last month. LOA still serves business clients and provides some services to EarthLink and Savvis users, but has been removed from radar screen for now.

Also late in February, High Speed Access sold 95 percent of its subscribers to Comcast Corp. The company and used some of the proceeds to buy back a third of its outstanding common stock from Vulcan Ventures, reportedly some 20.2 million shares. On Monday, the stock was at 0.92 and could avoid a Nasdaq delisting if it can stay at a $1 or more.

The board of directors of High Speed Access "is examining options for the company's future." Meanwhile, we'll be dropping the company from forthcoming analysis until its subscriber counts are made available to the public.

On March 11, Saudi billionaire Alwaleed Bin Talal announced he had invested $450 million in America Online.

On March 12, 2002, EarthLink announced it has struck a deal with AT&T Broadband to provide cable modem access over its vast network in select U.S. markets. As a result, EarthLink's stock rose. On March 14 the FCC decided that cable companies did not need to share their networks with rivals. As a result, EarthLink's stock plummeted. EarthLink said of the FCC ruling: "Encouraging broadband deployment does not mean sacrificing consumer choice. Unfortunately, today's FCC decision does just that."

United Online inked an agreement with Comcast to provide cable modem access through its Juno and NetZero brands. The company's stock rose further when two major analysts announced they would cover UNTD.

GoAmerica continues to impress investors, adding a new partner or two almost every week. The latest announcement, on March 20 expands its relationship with Verizon Wireless, which gave the company's stock another small boost. On December 11, 2001, when GoAmerica announced its struck a deal with IBM Global Services, its stock shot upward from 1.12 to 2.49. On Monday GOAM closed at 1.70, up nearly seven percent.

Values reflect market close on March 25, 2002, except for AOL, which was updated on March 27, 2002 after a massive corporate writeoff. Since the writeoff is simply the conversion of a recurring charge into a one-off charge of $54 billion, markets understand that the charge will increase future earnings, and only subtracted $4 billion from the company's massive market capitalization.

ISP Subscriber Value:  $841

Stock Symbol

ISP

Value per subscriber

Market Cap
(millions)

Number of subscribers


[AOL]

AOL

$2,842

$103,723

36,500,000

[ELNK]

EarthLink

$313

$1,502

4,800,000

[UNTD]

United Online

$206

$300

1,460,000

[GEEK]

Internet America

$25

$3.5

142,000

AOL subscriber numbers include RoadRunner and CompuServe.

Juno and NetZero have merged into United Online. We report only paying subscribers for the merged company. The company claims 5.6 million active users (combined paying and free subscribers).

EarthLink includes 172,000 Webhosting accounts in its subscriber numbers.

ISP subscriber values without AOL would average $181 per subscriber.

 

Cable ISP Subscriber Value:  $273

Stock Symbol

ISP

Value per subscriber

Market Cap
(millions)

Number of subscribers


[RCNC]
RCN
$273
$131
481,587

RCN subscriber numbers include subscribers to the StarPower joint venture (a joint venture with Pepco Communications, L.L.C., a utility's subsidiary). RCN reported 119,955 cable Internet subscribers and 361,632 dialup subscribers.

 

Mobile Wireless ISP Subscriber Value:  $838

Stock Symbol

ISP

Value per subscriber

Market Cap
(millions)

Number of subscribers


[GOAM]

GoAmerica

$838

$91

108,446

GoAmerica subscriber data is as of Sept. 30, 2001.

Motient filed for Chapter 11, and will be added back to the chart when restructuring ends.

 

ISP Sale Prices

Buyer/Seller

Value per subscriber

Price
(millions)

Number of subscribers


EarthLink (ELNK)/
OmniSky (OMNYE)

$156

$5

32,000

OmniSky, a mobile wireless ISP, was in Chapter 11 when it was acquired by EarthLink in January, 2002. At its peak, OmniSky was valued at $1.6 billion. Forbes estimates that in 2001, EarthLink paid about $150 per subscriber for 36 other ISPs with a total subscriber count of 304,000, a total of $46 million. If Forbes' estimates are correct, the average size of the acquired ISPs would be 8,500 subscribers. This data suggests that EarthLink pays the same price for dialup and mobile wireless subscribers.

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