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ISP Market Research

Subscriber Values: May 2002

This month, we add Competitive Local Exchange Carriers (CLECs) to our subscriber values. They're a mixed bunch of carriers, from multibillion dollar corporations to smaller local telecommunications companies.

ISP-Planet Staff
[May 29, 2002]
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America Online's (NYSE:AOL) numerous profit problems are well documented and as a result, the stock continues to decline. In a generally downward trending market, United Online stands out as high point in our analysis, as its stock rises. But United Online's (Nasdaq:UNTD) increases are much smaller than Internet America's (OTC BB:GEEK) subscriber values, which have also show modest gains since we last looked at the market.

ISP Subscriber Value:  $691
(ISP subscriber values without AOL would average $168 per subscriber.)

Stock Symbol

ISP

Value per subscriber

Market Cap
(millions)

Number of subscribers

[AOL]

AOL*

$2,260

$83,622

37,000,000

[UNTD]

United Online*

$276

$442

1,600,000

[ELNK]

EarthLink

$207

$1,014

4,900,000

[GEEK]

Internet America

$22

$3

137,000

*AOL subscriber numbers include RoadRunner.
*
Juno and NetZero have merged into United Online. We report only paying subscribers for the merged company. The company claims 5.6 million active users (combined paying and free subscribers).

OmniSky, a mobile wireless ISP, was in Chapter 11 when it was acquired by EarthLink in January, 2002. At its peak, OmniSky was valued at $1.6 billion. Forbes estimates that in 2001, EarthLink (Nasdaq:ELNK) paid about $150 per subscriber for 36 other ISPs with a total subscriber count of 304,000, a total of $46 million. If Forbes' estimates are correct, the average size of the acquired ISPs would be 8,500 subscribers. This data suggests that EarthLink pays the same price for dialup as it does mobile wireless subscribers.

ISP Sale Prices

Buyer/Seller

Value per subscriber

Price
(millions)

Number of subscribers

EarthLink (ELNK)/
OmniSky (OMNYE)

$156

$5

32,000

Go America's (Nasdaq:GOAM) stock fell as the Hackensack, New Jersey-based Internet service added subscribers. The company is focusing on cutting costs but continues to add apparently advantageous relationships with its users.

Mobile Wireless ISP Subscriber Value:  $186

Stock Symbol

ISP

Value per subscriber

Market Cap
(millions)

Number of subscribers

[GOAM]

GoAmerica

$186

$28

153,000

RCN (Nasdaq:RCNC) is adding cable subscribers but losing its dialup base. Its stock rose this month as the bundled communications provider lost more subscribers in aggregate than it gained.

Cable ISP Subscriber Value:  $404

Stock Symbol

ISP

Value per subscriber

Market Cap
(millions)

Number of subscribers

[RCNC]
RCN
$404
$189
481,587

RCN subscriber numbers include subscribers to the StarPower joint venture (a joint venture with Pepco Communications, L.L.C., a utility's subsidiary). RCN reported 136,795 cable Internet subscribers and 331,470 dialup subscribers.


Our new CLEC listings requires close examination. We are comparing a wide variety of companies, including Covad, and we welcome your comments.

GT Group Telecom controls and operates an independent national broadband network in Canada that provides metropolitan and long haul services. Over its network, GT (Nasdaq:GTTLB) provides high-speed data, Internet, applications and voice services targeted primarily to small and medium businesses, large enterprises and telecommunications providers. The Toronto-based telecom serves over 6,000 customers in over 2,000 buildings.

Louisiana-based Century Tel (NYSE:CTL) and its subsidiaries the operated approximately 1.8 million telephone access lines, primarily in rural, suburban and small urban areas in 21 states at the end of 2001.

From its base of operations in Little Rock, Ark., Alltel Corp. provides communications and information services, as well as telecom products and its telephone directories. Long-distance services are provided on both a facilities-based and resale basis by the Alltell's (NYSE:AT) subsidiaries to 10 million customers, including 200,000 Internet subscribers.

General Communications (CGI) is primarily an Anchorage, Alaska-based holding company. Together with its direct and indirect subsidiaries the company offers diversified telecommunications portfolio, including digital and analog cellular telephone services. CGI (Nasdaq:GNCMA) operates four reportable segments: long-distance services, cable services, local access services and Internet services. All told, GCI connects 90,000 telephone subscribers, 71,400 Internet customers, 30,000 cable Internet customers, 26,000 digital cable TV customers, and 132,627 cable TV subscribers.

FASTNET is an Internet service provider offering Internet access and enhanced services, such as webhosting, managed security solutions, and other value added products, to small and medium sized enterprises in the mid-Atlantic region. FASTNET (Nasdaq:FSST) provides services to 2,164 enterprise customers, 26,276 SOHO customers, and 7,014 webhosting customers.

Covad Communications Group provides broadband communications services that it sells to businesses and consumers through Internet service providers, enterprises, telecommunications carriers and other customers. From its base of operations in Santa Clara, Calif., Covad (OTC BB:COVD) currently has more than 359,000 lines in use across the U.S.

Alaska Communications Systems Group (The ACS Group) is diversified, facilities-based telecommunications provider in Alaska. The ACS Group (Nasdaq:ALSK) offers local telephone, cellular, long distance, data and Internet services, interexchange network and other services to business and residential customers throughout the state. The company currently operates 330,000 access lines, connects 80,000 cellular and 66,000 long distance customers, as well as 47,000 Internet users.

Charlotte, North Carolina-based US LEC (Nasdaq:CLEC) provides integrated telecommunications services, including local, long distance, data, Internet and enhanced services to 7,500 enterprise customers comprising 208,188 voice and 40,147 data channels, as well as 30,131 ISP clients.

CLEC Subscriber Value:  $1,548

Stock Symbol

CLEC

Value per subscriber

Market Cap
(millions)

Number of subscribers

[GTTLB]

GT Group Telecom

$5,177

$31

6,000

[CTL]

Century Tel

$1,815

$4,215

2,322,769

[AT]

AllTel

$1,613

$16,125

10,000,000

[GNCMA]

General Communications

$1,448

$506

350,027

[FSST]

FASTNET

$988

$35

35,454

[COVD]

Covad

$728

$261

359,000

[ALSK]

The ACS Group

$347

$181

523,000

[CLEC]

US LEC

$270

$75

278,466

Subscriber numbers are from ISP-Planet's list of U.S. ISPs and from company reports. Market capitalization data is as of market close, Tuesday May 28, 2002, reported on the Wall Street Research Network.

—End

Related articles:
  [Dec. 19, 2001] 2001 Subscriber Values Analysis
  [Nov. 27, 2001] Prove That You're Worth It
  [June 15, 2001] Landscape Changing for Backbone Providers?

Online resources:
  DSL Subscriber Numbers
  History of Subscriber Values
  Top U.S. ISPs by Subscriber
  Wall Street Research Network

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